The belief that you, or a particularly talented financial manager, can foresee the direction of the stock market is a seductive one. Some investors are confident that, with proper research, they can make money by snapping up equities when prices are low, and shifting their investments into cash or bonds when the market hits its peak. Even worse, they believe they can pay someone else can do it for them. But longitudinal studies have shown time and time again that no one can consistently predict the direction of the market in the short run.